Hello once again everybody!! Finally we will be down to 13 people in the house. In spite of everything it looks like we’re going to see a blindside tonight. As bad as this season has been, the gameplay itself should get more interesting. We’ll finally see who amongst David, Ovi, Kemi, and (probably) Cliff who will get a second chance at the game (although David never really had a first chance). As bad as the game has been it really can’t get much worse, but it should actually get better here.
It is indeed breathtaking how bad this cast is: I’ve made it clear throughout the years that Big Brother is the preferred reality show for me because of the game itself not the way the game is cast. Survivor and Amazing Race on CBS are shows that are on primetime during the main television while Big Brother has been mostly a summer show. In my opinion what’s held Big Brother back is the casting. I actually stopped watching Survivor about 5 years ago or so because the game seemed to become more about finding the hidden immunity idols than being strategic. Now I hear that the person that won the last season was in the game for like 12 days or something because of some goofy twist. Amazing Race is fun, but it’s hard for me to get into. My opinion has always been Big Brother is a much better game than those shows, but the other shows have people of all ages, all walks of life, etc. Big Brother doesn’t. Big Brother casts their show like one of those shows that used to be on MTV at midnight or something. I do complain about the twists on Big Brother, but they’re not any worse than the other shows, it’s not the game that made Big Brother mostly a summer show, it’s the casting. I’m not going to get into the nuts and bolts of why this cast is bad, but if you’re a casual fan just watching on TV (I try to talk to both diehard and casuals in these blogs), it’s way worse than it even looks. This is not a likeable bunch, and most of the ones that are indeed somewhat likeable won’t be there after tonight. Personally what keeps me going is all but one of these people will lose at some point. I’m here for it when they turn on each other, and it should start tonight.
But speaking of which: I can’t watch the shows as they come on. There’s some idiotic dispute between DirecTV and the company that has the local CBS affiliate here. Of course I can and do watch on the app, but I can’t do that until well after the show is over. (So tomorrow will be when I get to see all the fun).
Odds: Since the six are breaking away from the “Gr8ful” alliance, the questions are 1) Can they keep winning? Nick was part of their alliance and will be until tonight, and he’s HOH, and the previous HOH’s were Christine and Jack. Jackson won that Camp Director vote to start with. 2) How long will the Six be loyal to one another? 3) How will they handle it if and when they don’t have power? The other thing is after tonight, I think the line will be drawn in the sand. Of course disregard all of this if they flip back for some reason, but if this goes through the whole house will know who the six are, and the rest will know they are playing against them.
Tommy 8-1: He’s sitting as good as anyone, he’s well liked enough at this point that you wouldn’t think he’d have a problem with the jury if he does make the finals so he’s the early favorite. I’m uncomfortable making *anyone* the favorite on July 18, but here we are. If someone with power goes after his alliance it’ll probably be the Jacks that they go after. Holly and Analyce are just numbers at this point, Christine is an emotional trainwreck.
Christine 10-1: She’s sitting as well as anyone right now, but how well will she hold it together? Can she hold it together? At all? You can argue she’s sitting even better than Tommy because of her power, but it’s a long ways to September 25th.
Sam 10-1: He’s been talked about a little bit as a target, but I think Nick would go first. I have Sam here because he can win the game if he has a chance to at the end. He will need some new allies.
Jack/Jackson 11-1 each: They need to stop putting these people on the show to be honest with you. As for their games if the alliance remains strong throughout the game one or both could make it to the end, if the alliance falls apart or loses power they’ll be targeted. They can win comps.
Nick 12-1: Like I’ve said before you don’t want to be surprised by what happens at an eviction, and you REALLY don’t want to be surprised if you’re the outgoing HOH. It’s going to be tough for him if this goes through.
Bella 13-1: I thought she was going to be fun. Yeah sure she tells too many people too many things, and will probably get evicted for it but I thought it’d be entertaining. She’s not.
Analylse/Holly 15-1: I don’t see anything out of these two so far. If their alliance remains strong and they can win an occasional comp themselves, one of them could make the final 2 I guess, if someone wanted an easy win. But right now I really have to stretch my imagination coming up with a scenario with either of them winning.
Nicole 16-1: Out of the people that would be left, she’s the most likeable, and hopefully she can last as long as possible, then again for her sake if you don’t have a chance to win it might be better to be a non-jury member than to be locked up with these knuckleheads. Right now it’s hard to see how the numbers would be there for her.
Jessica 18-1: I just don’t have any confidence in her gameplay. My biggest fear is her winning an HOH and having a week as disastrous as Fessy’s last year.
Kat 20-1: She won a POV, and I might be underestimating her a little bit at this point. A couple weeks ago I thought she was just a nutjob.
Cliff 30-1: Didn’t think he was going to go this soon. I’ve heard the Comeback comp will be merged with the HOH comp, which means it would certainly be some kind of endurance. If that’s the case then he’s probably toast.
Predictions: Cliff will be evicted 7-3 I’ll say. I think they’ll give Kat a heads up and it’ll go that way. My picks tonight are David to win the comeback comp, and Christine to win the HOH.
That’s all for now..enjoy the show, and hope for some chaos tonight!!!
MattD (@MattD34 on twitter)