Big Brother 21: Opinions, Odds and Predictions For July 11

odds

By Matt Dowen

Hello once again everybody!! Week 2 will be in the books after tonight. There’s been movement to keep Kemi around, but it doesn’t sound to me like it flipped like I thought it might. The twist was interesting. We’ve got like 77 more days of this stuff, so let’s enjoy the ride! These are my thoughts:

The twist wasn’t as bad as it could have been which means if you grade on a curve it was excellent. We had already gone through the idiotic thing where someone gets evicted the first night. Julie kept hinting that David could come back into the house as well as the eventual evictee last week (Ovi), so we braced ourselves for another potentially idiotic twist. It really wasn’t bad because we pretty knew without Julie hinting at it someone out of the first four or five evictees was coming back, so the only real surprise was the evictees get to live in the house. It’s a good thing because the person who does come back of course will have an understanding of what’s going on (unless it’s Ovi). Personally I’d prefer to start the game with 14 players, with no buy-backs and have the season last 70-80 days, but that ship sailed a long, long, long time ago. 
So the Battle Back would have to be next week..right?  Sometimes they tape it and then show it on a special Friday night episode. Sometimes it’s mostly random and actually airs during the live show, and other times it’s been part of an endurance challenge that also determines the HOH. If someone *not* in the Gr8ful alliance wins HOH this week they’re in a tough spot. Do you target the “Jacks” or someone strong knowing they very well might come back, or do you purposely try not to target a strong person that’s in that alliance to hopefully give one of the first three a better chance? Of course none of us have any idea what the comp is going to be, it might be kind of random. 
 
Odds: 
Tommy 10-1
Sam 10-1
Cliff 11-1
Bella 12-1
Christine 12-1
Nicole 13-1
Jackson 14-1
Nick 14-1
Jack 15-1
Holly 16-1
Analyse 16-1
Jessica 18-1
Kat 25-1
Kemi 25-1
 
Someone WILL win this game, I promise. At this point I start at the bottom with people I can’t see winning , and then I work my way up. The people towards the top are there by process of elimination. Everyone’s odds are still in double digits. If David wins the battle back, there’s a decent chance he’ll be in the top half-dozen or so if he’s not then targeted right away.
Tommy 10-1: Again everyone’s a longshot at this juncture. He’s in the majority alliance, nobody seems particularly upset with him, so he’s where he’s at. 
Sam 10-1: That really was heartbreaking watching him take the news that he suffered such a tremendous loss. He’s got 2 POV’s now which could make him a target, and it did give me some pause that his name was thrown around a little bit last night by Jack, but I think he’s ok for now.
Cliff 11-1: Again when I started this I figured he might be slightly above the middle because he’s not a huge target, but by process of elimination…he’s all the way up here. We could easily have a situation where he slowly slides down the ladder without doing that much wrong. It’s a little worrisome that people are starting to listen in on his morning talks with us, but I don’t think that’ll bite him quite yet. If the next HOH sees they won’t get their top target out, they might go after him to put a “weak” player in the battle back.
Bella 12-1: Again process of elimination. I have her at 12-1, the 11th person -Analyse is 16-1..not a huge difference. I don’t think anyone in the Gr8ful alliance will turn on her at this point, but she could have a problem if one of the former “black widows” wins HOH. I’m guessing she’ll be on the block with Nick sooner or later.
Christine 12-1: She drives all the feed watchers crazy  being the way she is. Not only does she know Tommy, but I guess she’s good friends with someone who works with the casting people? That’s nice.
Nicole 13-1: She’s not in a great position at the moment, and is as likely as anyone to be the 4th person evicted, but if she survives there’s always a chance she could make it pretty far. She’s the one in the house that could be helped the most if an HOH decides to start a new alliance.
Jackson 14-1: I don’t think he’ll eventually win but it might be late August or later before we get rid of him. The editing has been awfully kind to him.
Nick 14-1: My hunch is he’ll be evicted if he’s next to Bella, but that could be wrong. I’m not super impressed with him at this early stage.
Jack 15-1: Would someone go for him next week knowing he’d be in the battle back? I really don’t know. My guess right now is he’ll eventually go first among the Jacks. Not sure when.
Holly/Analyse 16-1 each: There’s any number of reasons that people criticize the casting. Most of them are pretty good to very reasons. The one that doesn’t get talked about enough is every season there seems to be at least a couple of the women that are cast strictly because they’re likely to be in a showmance.
Jessica 18-1: Yeah she chose Jackson to play veto. I think she’s safe tonight, but between the way she handles being on the block and choosing Jackson for veto, I’m not seeing a likely winner here.
Kat 25-1: I like her more than I thought I would. We’ll see how long she lasts.
Kemi 25-1: You get the feeling that if the show was cast differently she would have a chance to do some damage. She really could have won that veto, I wish she had.
David/Ovi: (not in the game) : Most of us are hoping for David to win the battle back. Ovi’s a great guy, but he ain’t good at this game.
Predictions: Kemi gets evicted in a lopsided vote. The people who want to keep her have a good grip on who’s voting for who, and once they realize the votes aren’t there will landslide it in favor of evicting her. They’ve been working on the backyard since Tuesday so it’s likely to be some kind of endurance comp. I’ll say Sam wins it, with Christine and Jackson possibilities.
OK that’s it for now–enjoy the show and good luck!!!
MattD  (@MattD34 on twitter).

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