Hello once again!!! We got our twist, we got our drama, and as I feared we lost the most popular player because of it. It finally looks like Ryan will leave the house and (I presume) become the first jury member. The house did have to flip, so it might even be a blindside. As always there’s plenty to discuss. These are my thoughts:
Last week: I’ve already discussed this some, but now that a fan favorite who’s also a strong player has been evicted because of the twist I’ll weight in some more. Here’s what the twist added to the show: 1) It did indeed add some drama. Quite a bit of it, I must admit. Is she going to nominate Erica? Will she get the votes? How will the people react? I mean I can’t say nothing good came out of it, that was a really thrilling episode. Didn’t turn out the way I wanted or the way most people wanted, but it was a thriller. 2) Now for the negative, the rest of the game people will be saying Erika “would have won” had it not been for the twist. They opened themselves up it. I had Erica as a co-favorite but at 5-1, so I’ll say she might have won, but it’s also possible without the twist with Ryan gone she could have lost this week. Now it’s entirely possible she could have won one or both of the comps, but she probably would have needed to win one, and if not the HOH , we might have had a backdoor week where she wouldn’t have a chance at POV.
As far as the fan vote, all I can say is the only plausible explanation is many if not most of the casual fans that voted to save Ryan had little to no idea Erica might be in trouble if someone was indeed saved. There’s no other explanation for it. I appreciated the drama , but there’s other ways to do this. Ex-houseguest Neda made a tweet (which I won’t repeat word for word) essentially saying former players who were helped by the twists always talk about how great they are and they don’t make a difference in who wins, and the ones who were hurt by them hate them. The thing is while that’s true, many fans are the same way. In my opinion that’s why they keep doing these twists, because when they help a fan favorite, many of the people that tweet 75 times a day will shout about how great it was. Personally that’s why I always criticize the unfairness when I feel it’s warranted even if it helps players I like. I’ve said this before, when production helps someone you like, they can just as easily go the other way. Like I said last week, in general Canada has gotten much better this way as compared to the early seasons, but again this sort of thing can happen if you make it possible.
Obviously this is based on the presumption that Johnny will stay and Ryan will go. Derek, Kaela, and Johnny are the 3 biggest targets in the house, but I gave them the 3 best odds. Why? With Ryan being evicted the other 5 people have combined to win ONE comp. There’s a good chance one of those 5 will start winning, maybe even as soon as tonight, but I can’t really tell whom out of those 5. I think Ryan’s toast, but I’m not counting anybody else out.
Derek 5-1: They way this season could permanently shift could depend on who wins the triple eviction HOH, and gets two evictions for the price of one. The consensus has been that would be the week to take “Daela” out of the game. That is the week those two have to watch out for.
Kaela 5-1: I think she made the right move in getting rid of Erica. Sooner or later she would have come after them. Now she herself has only won one comp, but she’s joined at the hip with Derek, so there’s more power there. I’d still be surprised if the two of them both make final four, but unless things fall apart on the triple eviction night I think one of them will with a chance at winning.
Johnny 6-1: He’s remarkable. You gotta give him that. Why do people think they can lie about their vote and get away with it? In this case, he probably would have been nominated anyway, but still. I can’t remember a time in the last ten years when someone’s done that and gotten away with it. Dr.Will did it in all-stars early in the game and got away with it in part because no one really cared, but off the top of my head I honestly can’t think of another time since then when someone’s done that and not gotten found out. Well anyway, assuming he stays Johnny could really be a comp beast from here on out.
Paras 7-1: Someone from the Paras/Maddy duo or the Ali/Liv duo could win, but I have no idea who would be the one to step up. Paras still hasn’t been nominated.
Olivia 7-1: Again, she does have an HOH win to her credit, albeit a question/answer one, but those count just as much. Winning a comp like that at least shows you’re willing to get your hands dirty, and play the game.
Maddy 8-1: I don’t find her to be that likeable myself, and she hasn’t won anything, so it doesn’t seem like she’d have much chance, but if none of those top 3 end up winning, someone has to.
Ali 8-1: She was actually nominated week one and has been safe ever since. Olivia was a pawn in week 3, and Maddy was put up and taken down by Erica in week 4. Again one comp win between the four of them, but can any of them win when they need to?
Will 10-1: I still think he’s too much of a spaz to win the game, although it’ll be easier to win comps the longer he lasts obviously. Maybe he has a winning streak in him.
Ryan 30-1: Well finally. Pretty much everyone in the house is giving themselves credit for flipping the house, which could make for an entertaining segment. I’m under the impression Ryan doesn’t know he’s going which could make for an entertaining live show.
Predictions: Not only did it flip but everyone’s down with it, so I’ll predict a 6-0 sweep for Ryan to be evicted. Will we have a first time HOH this week? Nah. Johnny ‘ll take it.
OK that’s all for now..as always enjoy the show!!!
MattD (@MattD34 on twitter)