Hello again everyone!! Another week gone by, another eviction night coming up, another bad twist, another week of Big Brother Canada!!! Ryan would be going if not for the twist, but he will probably be saved. So just about anyone with the exception of the HOH (Kaela) the POV (Johnny) or automatic safety (Derek) could in theory be headed out the door. AS always there’s plenty to talk about so let’s get to it.
We knew this was happening but geez: This hasn’t actually been a bad season for twists, but again how does this help the game? How does this make things better? You’re taking someone who failed to win either comp, failed to stay off the block or get taken off the block, and so far has failed to secure the votes to stay in the house, and you’re making him safe? I don’t mean to ridicule Ryan for this, most people that play this game lose at some point, and have a week like this. But whatever you get out of getting the fans involved, you’re taking away from the game. One thing is it makes a reason to actually watch the show tonight, which isn’t usually the case. We actually don’t know who’s going to be voted out so we have that I guess. I’ve given up on the HOH being complete by the time the “live” show is over. The twists aren’t nearly as bad as they used to be for the Canada BB, and it’s not nearly as bad as the USA version. But there just isn’t any reason for this.
Odds: The order I have these is quite a bit different than last week, but the odds themselves with the exception of Will isn’t.
Erica 5-1: If it weren’t for the twist tonight, she’d probably be the overall favorite instead of the co-favorite. The main thing is to survive the eviction of course. If Ryan is still in the house it might be awhile longer before she’s targeted. Once he’s gone she’ll really have a big target on her back. So I would just keep on trying to win as many comps as possible and see what happens.
Johnny 5-1: You can say some of the same things about Johnny as Erica. I think they are both doing well with jury management , both would have an excellent chance of winning if they make it to the end. I’m guessing one of them doesn’t make the final 4 and one will. What would be a huge move is for someone to nail them both in the triple eviction.
Derek 6-1: He helped his chances this week as Kaela is now the bigger target and would likely go if the two are on the block. Derek has yet to win a comp and that could bite him, he needs to do that. He made a good play taking the safety this week as 1) he wasn’t going to win anyway 2)He can play HOH next week in spite of being automatically safe (which is better than being HOH) and 3) Limited the time on slop.
Paras 7-1: She’s in good alliances, gets on well with most everyone. I’d like to see her win an HOH and make a big move.
Olivia 7-1: Like with Paras I think she has an outside shot at winning. She of course has the double eviction HOH to her credit which was big at the time.
Kaela 8-1: Production seems to want to make her unpopular, perhaps to be sure the fans vote to save someone. If you wanted someone to shake up the house, she certainly came through. I don’t think gunning for Ryan was a bad move at all, as she voted to evict him last week, and he’s capable of occasionally winning comps.
Maddy 10-1: Not terribly impressed at the moment with her. Seems too emotional, doesn’t win anything, doesn’t seem well-liked in the house.
Ali 10-1: Right now don’t see her winning either, but can’t count anyone out yet. I’d be more impressed if she were to win something.
Will 12-1: With Will I was just reading it wrong. I’m not quite as in to this as the USA show, didn’t realize how much of a spaz he is. I was watching the live feeds when he had his talk with Kaela, and he spazzed out afterword about 10 times worse than they showed on TV. At this point I don’t think he has the makeup of someone that will win the game.
Ryan 15-1: He would be going tonight of course, but I don’t think he will. Regardless he has no allies, and while he’s better at comps than you’d think , he’s not the type of comp beast that win the game that way. He’s still the longest shot at this point.
Predictions: The polls indicate Ryan will be saved tonight, so I’ll say that will happen. I think there’s about a 55% chance Erica goes up in his place, so I’ll predict that. I will predict that they end up one way or another not getting the votes to evict her, which means I predict Will is the evictee tonight. I’ll take a guess and say Ryan pulls out another HOH win.
Ok that’s it for now enjoy the show!!!
MattD (@MattD34 on twitter)